Two majors down. One to go. And it happens to be the most European one.
The 2026 major season has been, by any reasonable measure, a European one. Rory McIlroy defended his Masters title at Augusta in April — the fourth player in history to win back-to-back Green Jackets. Aaron Rai won the PGA Championship in May, becoming the first English-born player to claim a major since 1919. Two of the three majors played so far this year have gone to Europe. The fourth, the oldest and the most naturally European of them all, arrives at Royal Birkdale on 16 July. Here are the five names worth backing.
Tommy Fleetwood — The Hometown Favourite
If there is a script written for this Open, it ends with Fleetwood’s name on the trophy. He grew up in Southport. He knows every gust off the Irish Sea, every quirk of that coastline — and, one suspects, every pub on the high street. The gallery at Birkdale will carry him loudly, and for four days. He finished tied eleventh at Shinnecock Hills last weekend. His links record is exceptional. The only thing Fleetwood has never done is win a major. Birkdale in July, in front of a crowd entirely on his side, feels like the moment that changes.
Aaron Rai — The Man With Momentum
Three weeks ago, Rai won the PGA Championship at Aronimink. He did it without any of the drama that typically surrounds major week — calmly, methodically, with the composure of someone who had done it before. He hadn’t. He was also tied eleventh at Shinnecock Hills last weekend. The form is there. The belief, clearly, is there. Links golf will suit him. This is a player who could win two majors in a calendar year, and if that thought has not yet crossed his mind, it will have crossed his caddie’s.
Rory McIlroy — The Links Specialist
McIlroy won The Open at Royal Liverpool in 2014. He has six major titles and back-to-back Masters victories. His Shinnecock weekend was painful — a promising start that unravelled over two difficult back nines — but he has already confirmed the next two weeks will be spent playing links golf at home. The Scottish Open follows on 9 July, four days before Birkdale. There is a reason McIlroy talks about The Open the way other players talk about Augusta. The links game is the one he trusts most. He is not the favourite. He is, however, dangerous.
Shane Lowry — The Experience Card
Lowry won at Royal Portrush in 2019 in conditions that resembled a weather event more than a golf tournament. He won anyway. He is the sort of player who gets sharper when the wind gets up and the occasion gets heavy. Royal Birkdale in July can be both. Lowry will not feature prominently in the early conversations about this Open. That is almost certainly how he would prefer it.
Robert MacIntyre — The One Worth Watching
The young Scotsman plays links golf as though he was born to it — which, on the west coast of Scotland, he essentially was. MacIntyre has been building quietly toward a major for two years. The ingredients are there: the game, the temperament, the pedigree. Birkdale, with the right wind and the right week, might be where the building finally stops.
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The 154th Open Championship begins on 16 July. If it has you thinking about golf in rather more agreeable temperatures, the Algarve’s coastal courses offer firm fairways and Atlantic winds year-round — the next best thing to a week on the Lancashire coast. Browse our Algarve golf holidays and start planning.
